Tariffs pose rising inflation and rate cut risks for H2 2025 as CPI data hints at early price pressures in key goods. See why markets may be underpricing this threat.

U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs boosted prices for imported goods like household furniture and recreation products, supporting views that price pressures would pick up in the second half of the year and delay the Federal Reserve from resuming cutting interest rates until at least October.

Critics of President Trump's tariff policies have been waiting for the import taxes to raise the inflation rate. That effect may be beginning.