Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)

Ohio State has lost three consecutive games, and four of its last five. In the most important stretch of the year, the Buckeyes are floundering, and it could leave them on the outside of March Madness,